Guide/Advanced Concepts

Advanced Concepts

The mathematics and advanced concepts behind our strategy

This page covers advanced mathematics and concepts. If you're new, start with Getting Started and Strategy first.

Understanding R-Multiples

What Is "R"?

R stands for your Initial Risk on a trade. It's the amount you stand to lose if your stop loss is hit.

Example:

  • • Account size: $10,000
  • • You risk 0.3% = $30 per trade
  • Your R = $30

R-Multiples Table

OutcomeR-MultipleDollar Result (R=$30)
Stopped out-1R-$30
Small loss-0.2R to -0.5R-$6 to -$15
Standard win3R to 5R+$90 to +$150
Home run10R to 50R++$300 to +$1,500+

Why Think in R?

Standardization

A $500 loss on a $50K account equals a $50 loss on a $5K account. Both are -1R.

Emotional Control

When you know your average win is 4R and average loss is 0.8R, you won't panic during a 5-trade losing streak.

Forces Discipline

You calculate your exit BEFORE you enter. You don't ask 'How much can I make?' but 'Where is my stop?'

Position Sizing

The Golden Rule

Never risk more than 0.25-0.30% of your total capital on a single trade.
This is the foundation of everything. If you break this rule, nothing else matters.

The Position Sizing Formula

Position Size = Risk Amount ÷ (Entry Price - Stop Loss Price)

Example:

  • • Account: $10,000
  • • Risk per trade: 0.3% = $30
  • • Entry price: $50
  • • Stop loss: $48 (4% below entry)
  • • Risk per share: $50 - $48 = $2
  • Shares to buy: $30 ÷ $2 = 15 shares
  • • Total position value: 15 × $50 = $750 (7.5% of account)

Why Tight Stops Enable Bigger Positions

Stop DistanceRisk Per ShareShares (with $30 risk)Position Value
2% ($1 on $50 stock)$130 shares$1,500 (15%)
4% ($2 on $50 stock)$215 shares$750 (7.5%)
10% ($5 on $50 stock)$56 shares$300 (3%)

Tighter stops = larger positions = bigger impact when you win. This is why we use 3-5% stops instead of 10-15%.

Selling Into Strength

The 7-11 Rule

Starting when a stock reaches 7x ATR% above the 50-day SMA, take profits at each ATR% multiple:

7x
ATR% above 50 SMA
Sell portion
8x
ATR% above 50 SMA
Sell portion
9x
ATR% above 50 SMA
Sell portion
10x
ATR% above 50 SMA
Sell portion
11x
ATR% above 50 SMA
Sell portion

This is mechanical. No prediction. No discretion. Just execution.

Other Exit Signals

1

Vertical price action

When a stock accelerates sharply upward, emotions peak and structure weakens. Sell into the strength.

2

Pocket pivot days

If a stock is up more than +10% on the day on a pocket pivot, sell 10% of your position.

3

Climax tops

True climax moves are emotional, fast, and unsustainable. Sell 70-90% to protect gains.

Remember: Vertical moves don't fade slowly. They reverse fast. Stocks don't ask for permission before dropping. If you don't sell into strength, the market will force the exit — often at much worse prices.

Selling Into Weakness

There are three scenarios where we sell into weakness:

1. Stop loss hit

The predefined stop from entry. This is automatic and non-negotiable.

2. Undercutting the EMA

If price goes below the 10-day EMA, sell 2/3 of the position. If it then goes below the 20-day EMA, sell the remaining 1/3.

3. Market trend model

If the overall market turns bearish, we may exit all positions regardless of individual stock performance.